LightweightSat, Oct 178:00 PM ET

Cristian PerezvsKyle Nelson

Our read

PerezNelson

73%27%

From the corner

Perez is younger by eight years, has a longer reach, and owns the better record at 13-2 against Nelson's 17-7 with plenty of miles on him. Nelson brings veteran volume and some submission craft off his back, but he's on the back nine of his career and gives up size and youth here. The numbers and the books basically agree Perez is the clear favorite, so there's no real gap to exploit.

What beats it

Nelson's durability and scrambling off his back could turn this into a grind where his experience in deep water bails him out late.

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PerezTale of the tapeNelson

13–2
Record: 17–7; 27
Age: 35; 175cm
Height: 180cm; 183cm
Reach: 180cm; Orthodox
Stance: Switch; 0
Win streak: 0; —
Strikes / min: 3.60; —
Strike accuracy: 46%; —
Takedowns / 15m: 1.18; —
Takedown accuracy: 23%; —
Sub attempts / 15m: 0.5

Markets

Best price highlighted

Winner

NEUTRAL

73%Perez wins

DraftKings: -290/+235
FanDuel: -340/+250
BetMGM: -350/+275

Over 1.5 rounds

NEUTRAL

45%it goes past round 1

DraftKings: +110/-140