Set it aside once.
Results tested on 518 cards / 2012–2024 / one bankroll
Bet the night, not the fight.
Put your UFC money aside once. Each card, a fixed slice of it is split across the fights. Here's what a good run of that looks like, and at the end, every other way it could have gone.
01 · Draw
First, ten percent comes out
Before a single fight, 100.00 of the $1,000 is set aside for tonight. The other $900 sits out the night, whatever happens.
02 · Split · 14 JAN 2012
Then it's spread across the card
8 bets, sized by edge. 2 sat out.
03 · Settle
What comes back sizes the next one
8 bets, sized by edge. 2 sat out.
04 · Repeat · a top 10% run
Then again. 518 times.
The same rule on the same 518 real cards, shuffled. This run beat 9 in 10 of 2,000 shuffles; the median and the worst are at the end.
This run's worst stretch, and the way back
Down 45%.
Back in 84 cards.
A high of $13,219 at card 359, a low of $7,289 at card 419, and a new high 84 cards later. Bets were smallest exactly when the bankroll was.
The run you watched
+1404% over 518 cards. A good run: better than 9 in 10. Here is where all 2,000 landed.
$1,000 → $15,044
Every run · the same 518 cards, shuffled 2,000 times · 10% a card
- Top 10% run (the one above)$15,044
- Median$5,959
- Real 2012–2024 order$5,629
- 1 in 10 finished below$2,107
- Worst of 2,000$217
Band: the middle 80% of runs. White: the median at each card. Green: the run above. Grey: the real 2012–2024 order. Dashed: the worst run.
96% of runs finished above $1,000. The typical one finished near $5,959; the worst, at $217.
And these use the best closing price across books. At the prices US apps offer, expect less, likely 6–8% a year. Past cards aren't future ones.
Final bankroll from $1,000 after 518 cards, across 2,000 shuffles. Steady halves the slice: a smaller top, a firmer floor.
The receipts · the real 2012–2024 order, every bet
Every card from 14 JAN 2012 to 14 DEC 2024 with closing prices on record, in date order: bout, fighter backed, closing odds, stake, result, bankroll. Each pick used only what was known before that card. It finished at $5,629.